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Prediction for CME (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-04T18:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36254/-1
CME Note: Fast partial halo seen generally to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 quickly leaving the SOHO C2 field of view, seemingly associated with an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3939 (S17W58) and associated long duration C7.6-class flare. Quickly moving field lines off the west limb and bright post eruptive arcades are observed in GOES SUVI 284/304. Associated with solar energetic particle events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-06T21:38Z (-5.77h, +4.95h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/01/04 18:50Z
Plane of Sky 1: 22:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 01:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
POS Difference: 2:40
POS Midpoint: 23:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:00

Numeric View/Impact Type: 1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.16
Travel Time: ~10.16 * 5:00 = 50:48

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-06T21:38Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/01/05 03:52Z

Lead Time: 41.73 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-01-05T03:54Z

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